Impactos Potenciais do Protocolo de Cartagena sobre Biossegurança nas Exportações Brasileiras de Soja

This paper aims to verify the impacts of the Biosafety Protocol on Brazilian exports, as the country was the only one amid the biggest world agricultural commodities producers that has ratified it. The analysis focused on Article 18 and also on the soybean market. The additional costs to identify LMOs were calculated to Brazil, Argentina and the US considering the main proposals submitted during negotiations. The figures revealed that the compliance costs are higher in Brazil compared to the other countries and that this difference increases as the exigencies become stricter. The potential impacts of these additional costs in the international market were estimated using the Equilibrium Displacement Model. It was considered a scenario under which only Brazil complied with CPB standards and another one where Argentina and the US also adopted equivalent measures. The results showed that Brazil would be harmed in both situations. The country could loose US$ 133 million under Scenario 1 and US$ 329 million under Scenario 2. Regarding Argentina and the US, the Scenario 2 presents better results. Therefore, it is almost certain that these countries will comply with CPB requirements. It implies that Brazil will incur in greater losses.