India’s Agricultural Economy, 2014 to 2024: Policies and Outcomes

This article is an assessment of the state of India’s agricultural sector between 2014 and 2024. It discusses and analyses growth trends, movements of agricultural prices, the economics of cultivation, employment and wages in rural areas, and selected legal reforms and policies of the Narendra Modi government, which has been in office over this period. The data used in the article are drawn from official statistical surveys and reports of the Government of India. The article draws four broad conclusions. First, the period between 2014 and 2024 was marked by an overall economic slowdown and poor growth of employment, particularly in rural India. Incentives to invest deteriorated. Agricultural prices grew slower than the costs of cultivation, leading to a fall in profitability rates and the real incomes of farmers. Secondly, the Government failed to fulfil a series of promises it had made to the rural electorate during its election campaigns in 2014 and 2019, particularly the promises to double farm incomes and raise minimum support prices. Thirdly, the Government’s efforts to amend or reform laws in the domain of agricultural marketing were met with united resistance by farmers’ organisations. Finally, several ill-thought measures of the Government – especially the restrictions on cattle trade, demonetisation, reform of the GST system, and the inadequate response to the Covid-19 pandemic – led to enormous suffering among farmers and adversely affected the health of the agrarian economy. The results of the elections to Parliament in June 2024 have been described as a reflection of the anger of the rural electorate with the Government’s policies and as the success of united rural mass movements.