Factors Influencing Grain Prices in Poland

The main aim of this study was to identify the factors that affected prices on the Polish grain market in 2005-2023. The analysis relied mainly on Statistics Poland data concerning the area under cereal production, grain yields, grain production, grain prices, grain imports and exports, and grain consumption. The research used the multiple regression method, which allowed to identify the factors determining the prices of wheat and rye. In Poland, the total area under cereal production decreased by 13.7% between 2005 and 2023. In the analyzed period, an increase was observed in the yields of wheat (36.2%), rye (47.3%), barley (39.4%), oat (25.2%), triticale (37.0%), mixed grains (19.5%), and grain maize (27.23%). Between 2005 and 2023, total grain yields increased by 33.1%, and the yields of the major cereal crops increased by 21.9%. Research shows that harvests in the world, in the EU and in Poland, as well as the area under wheat cultivation, are the factors shaping wheat prices in Poland. Wheat prices are therefore global and depend on changes in world markets. Global market trends determine wheat purchase prices and affect the profitability of production. The factors influencing the price of rye include the area of rye cultivation and bread consumption. Rye finds buyers mainly on the domestic market and is used in the food and feed industry. The reduction in animal production in the country resulted in reduced demand for rye for feed purposes.