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Forecasting Aid To Families With Dependent Children Caseloads And Payments In Delaware

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  • Bieker, Richard F.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a model which was developed to forecast Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) caseloads and payments in Delaware. The model consists of a caseload equation. a payments equation. and three labor market equations. The model. which was fitted statistically using quarterly data for the period 1958-1976, forecasts significantly better than trend type models. In addition , the model, unlike trend type models has the potential for forecasting turning points and can be used to simulate the impact of proposed policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bieker, Richard F., 1979. "Forecasting Aid To Families With Dependent Children Caseloads And Payments In Delaware," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-4, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nareaj:159292
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.159292
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hirschel Kasper, 1968. "Welfare Payments and Work Incentive: Some Determinants of the Rates of General Assistance Payments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 3(1), pages 86-110.
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    1. Bieker, Richard F., 1979. "Forecasting Aid To Families With Dependent Children Caseloads And Payments In Delaware," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-4, April.
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