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Determining Land Values Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression

Author

Listed:
  • Taylor, Mykel
  • Schurle, Bryan
  • Rundel, Brady
  • Wilson, Bill

Abstract

Agricultural land values have increased by an average of 21 percent each year since 2010 until recently when commodity prices dropped substantially. The accompanying decrease in profitability raises concerns that current land prices are not sustainable. This study presents a regression analysis of land prices in Kansas using data from 2012 through June 2014. Regression allows valuation of individual characteristics of land parcels as well as time adjustments. Prices projected by the model trended upward through 2013, but decreased between the last quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, suggesting that prices for land may have peaked in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mykel & Schurle, Bryan & Rundel, Brady & Wilson, Bill, 2015. "Determining Land Values Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2015, pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:233862
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233862
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/233862/files/421_Shurle_final_reduced.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilson, Bill & Schurle, Bryan & Taylor, Mykel & Featherstone, Allen & Ibendahl, Gregg, 2014. "Regression Estimates of Different Land Type Prices and Time Adjustments," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2014, pages 1-12.
    2. Schurle, Bryan & Featherstone, Allen & Wilson, Christine & Crossan, Dylan, 2013. "Land Prices During Periods of Rapid Change," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2013, pages 1-13, June.
    3. Stephens, Steve & Schurle, Bryan, 2013. "Impact of Rainfall, Sales Method, and Time on Land Prices," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2013, pages 1-7, June.
    4. Wild, Martin, 2009. "What Drives Land Prices in Your Market? The Use of Multiple Regression Analysis to Confirm the Significance of Determinative Real Estate Value Elements," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2009, pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

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