Nouveaux outils pour analyser les effets de la prochaine réforme de la PAC sur les exploitations agricoles

Since 1990 one is witnessing a new interest for models of simulation which function at the farm level. They have allowed to make projections of the CAP reform. They represent faithfully the regional agriculture. At INRA of Grignon, three micro-economic models have been used : the farm type analysis (Simulpac) ; the linear programming, traditional tool of optimisation ; the non linear programming, following the Howitt's new method taking into account a coefficient of risk aversion, individualised for each farmer and each crop. Interest and limits of these three methods have been tested and analysed on two different French regions. Different changes of the CAP have then been simulated. They have been compared to the CAP applied in 1995: 0% to 25% set aside rate change; different food crops prices declines until intervention prices. Agricultural policy scenarios including more complex effects have been then tested : premiums reductions as proposed by the Commission for 1997 or single premium to the hectare. Finally the introduction of three non food crops has been simulated.