Les problèmes des échanges agricoles méditerranéens

The aspects which divide Mediterranean countries are considerably greater in number than those which group them together. Whilst there is an abundance of discriminating factors, not solely economic, but also in particular sociocultural, institutional and political ones, which separate these countries, there is, apart from the geographical element, a common agricultural potential. This productive specialization has greatly affected trade flow. Change in consumer pattern, induced by slow economic development, has accentuated the trade deficit of these countries as regards the imports of European agricultural products such as meat, dairy products and fodder crops. In their search for a solution to this problem, Mediterranean countries, especially the less-developed ones, have attempted to increase the export of their agricultural products to Europe. In the utilization of such a strategy, great difficulties come to light concerning the low demand elasticity of these products with respect to imports. This results in the reduction of the productive potential, often quite considerable in this area. Obviously, these typical problems of backward countries appear in a deterioration of terms of trade with developed countries, in currency difficulties, and in a gradual fall in competition in the same export sectors. The increasing trade integration between EEC members and the other Mediterranean countries has at the begining given great support to the hypothesis of the determing role played by both the agricultural and agreement policies of the Community since the mid-'6O' s. Such an influence has been evident since the mid-sixties in two different forms : a) on the one hand the EEC policy was created also to protect its Mediterranean products, mostly in the backward regions, from the increasing competitiveness of the third Mediterranean countries, by means of various protectionist measures extended gradually to the Mediterranean sectors ; b) on the other hand, as a part of the external agreement policy, an opposite action has been developed toward a trade liberalization in several agricultural trades within the Mediterranean area. In the near future political as well economic influences of the EEC policies on the Mediterranean agricultural trade flows could only increase as consequence of the enlargment to Greece, Spain and Portugal. A structural analysis of the Mediterranean trade flows would require the study of the probable effects of the EEC policies; that for suggesting ex post evaluation on which policy (either CAP or agreements) has actually overcome the other, for analysing the way in which benefits have been allocated within the interested countries and finally for supplying a wider knowledge useful to forsee future events. Empirical results, obtained in particular for France, Italy and Greece, Spain and Portugal all toghether, have been deduced from an appropriate statistical and econometric analysis. As a consequence of future EEC enlargment to the most competitive countries (at least Greece and Spain), further trade divertion, and perhaps trade creation, in favour of the candidate nations can be expected, even if it is now very difficalt to foresee what will be the ultimate net balance of the benefits. Nevertheless it can be said that : a) if the EEC intends to preserve the interests of its Mediterranean regions in the long term, the enlargment policy must be carefully negociated in order to lessen the expected short term negative effects, specially in the wine, fresh fruit and olive oil sectors ; b) it a certain trade equilibrium with the other Mediterranean countries has to be kept, in order to maintain economic as well as political order in the Basin, the EEC will have to « reinvent » all its agreement policy for these countries to find the way to compensate them for the inevitable negative effects which will follow the enlargment. Because of the conditioning role of the EEC policies on the Mediterranean trade, which will be further increased as consequence of the enlargment, it then clear that a solution for a future trade equilibrium in this area cannot be reached without an overall co-ordination of the Common Agricultural Policy with the other external policies, such as the enlargment policy and the preferential agreement policy for non member Mediterranean countries.