Une représentation macroéconomique de l'agriculture française : Maalt (projections 1990 et variantes)

An econometric model of the French agricultural sector was estimated at the aggregate level over the 1959-1982 period. It explains investment, labor force, capital, purchases and final product. Labor productivity and income indicators are derived (using value added). The estimation procedure used econometric techniques for the factor derived demand equations. The production function is a Cobb Douglas with elasticities set at the observed leveJ of factor shares in the seventies. Projections to the 1990 horizon were made under various assumptions of farm prices and input costs. For the base run reasonnably optimist price changes were chosen. However they lead to a slow down for aggregate product, investment and farm purchases growth. Similarly the labor force decreases at slightly slower rate. The income per head indicator is the only one to grow at a rate comparable to the seventies. Simulation runs showed the sensitivity of the endogenous variables, particularly income per head to farm prices and input costs (except for labor force). Retrospective simulation runs were performed in order to give an overall estimation of the consequences of the crisis on the farm sector. They appear to be quite large as expected, and they have been aggravated by the negative MCA's. The productive capacity of the sector seems to have been undermined by the sluggish economy and the future of the sector turns out to depend more on macroeconomic policies than on strictly agricultural policies.