Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Global Climate Change

Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province, the annual and seasonal light, heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25℃/10a , the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying trend, featuring “significantly increased temperature, the decreased precipitation and sunshine”. These features are significant in autumn, thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenomenological boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland; different land use have different ecological system and ecological fragility. Specifically, the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability, while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore, suggestions on the related ecological land use plan are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance, saving water and adapting to climate change.