Author
Listed:
- Köppelová, J.
- Jindrová, A.
Abstract
The use of ICT has been steadily increasing in both business and social life. Apparently, the most essential communication technology today is a mobile phone. However, the use of mobile phones also has its downside, which is their impact on the environment, which is not negligible. Despite the negative impact on the environment, few of us can imagine a life without a mobile phone. The mobile telecommunications market is one of the most important sectors of the modern economy. Analysing past developments - as well as predicting future developments - of indicators in this area plays a very important role in decision making, as in any other area of the national economy. The extrapolation methods have been the most often applied methods in the area of time series analysis and forecasting in practice. Currently, the combined methods in time series forecasting is more and more favoured. The main aim of this paper is an examination of applicability of the Box-Jenkins methodology models and the exponential smoothing models for providing extrapolation forecasts, but for past development modelling of selected indicators from the telecom area, too. Information on the indicators under study was collected on monthly and daily basis. Quality of the models selected was then assessed using the MAPE and AIC metric. In conclusion, a comparative analysis was performed of both the groups of models. The best individual models were further aggregated and quality of these was assessed using the same assessment criteria. SAS statistical system was applied for effective implementation of the analysis. The research has demonstrated that the exponential smoothing models can only be recommended for the analysis of indicators under study from the mobile telecom area. The detailed analysis has proved, anyway, a higher level of success with the combined models.
Suggested Citation
Köppelová, J. & Jindrová, A., 2019.
"Application of Exponential Smoothing Models and Arima Models in Time Series Analysis from Telco Area,"
AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 11(3), September.
Handle:
RePEc:ags:aolpei:294568
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.294568
Download full text from publisher
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:294568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fevszcz.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.