IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aolpei/276110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the Halloween Effect Present on the Markets for Agricultural Commodities?

Author

Listed:
  • Burakov, D.
  • Freidin, M.

Abstract

Seasonal anomalies play an important role in the global economic system. One of the most frequently empirically observed anomalies is the Halloween effect. Halloween effect describes the anomaly on the financial markets, which is that the returns of different assets in the summer period are generally lower than the returns in the winter period. This study tests the Halloween effect on the agricultural commodities’ markets over the period from 1980 to 2016. The sample includes price series of 27 major agricultural commodities. The data show that 20 out of the 27 commodities recorded a higher average winter period than summer period returns and in 15 cases, the differences are statistically significant. The data also show that out of the 7 commodities with higher summer period returns (the “reverse Halloween effect”) only in cases of poultry and tea the differences are of statistically significant nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Burakov, D. & Freidin, M., 2018. "Is the Halloween Effect Present on the Markets for Agricultural Commodities?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:276110
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276110/files/373_agris-on-line-2018-2-burakov-freidin.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.276110?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    2. Nikolaos T. Milonas, 1991. "Measuring seasonalities in commodity markets and the half‐month effect," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 331-345, June.
    3. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
    4. Ben Jacobsen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2009. "The Halloween Effect in U.S. Sectors," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 437-459, August.
    5. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    6. Liu, Li & Ma, Guofeng, 2014. "Cross-correlation between crude oil and refined product prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 284-293.
    7. Hong, Harrison & Yu, Jialin, 2009. "Gone fishin': Seasonality in trading activity and asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 672-702, November.
    8. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
    9. Čermák, M. & Malec, K. & Maitah, M., 2017. "Price Volatility Modelling – Wheat: GARCH Model Application," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(4).
    10. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    11. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    12. Liu, Li, 2014. "Cross-correlations between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 293-302.
    13. Burakov, D., 2016. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    14. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 187-205, February.
    15. Cherry Y. Zhang & Ben Jacobsen, 2013. "Are Monthly Seasonals Real? A Three Century Perspective," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1743-1785.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Burakov, 2018. "Do discounts mitigate numerological superstitions? Evidence from the Russian real estate market," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(5), pages 467-470, September.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:5:p:467-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chhabra, Damini & Gupta, Mohit, 2020. "Market efficiency and calendar anomalies in commodity futures markets: a review," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 33(2), December.
    4. Chhabra, Damini & Gupta, Mohit, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in commodity markets for natural resources: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Peter Árendáš & Jana Kotlebová, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets and the Turn of the month effect," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 101-108.
    6. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter ARENDAS, 2017. "The Halloween effect on the agricultural commodities markets," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(10), pages 441-448.
    2. Wagner, Moritz & Lee, John Byong-Tek & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2022. "Mutual fund flows and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Zhang, Cherry Y. & Jacobsen, Ben, 2021. "The Halloween indicator, “Sell in May and Go Away”: Everywhere and all the time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    5. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "The Christmas effect—Special dividend announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 15-30.
    6. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "Another January effect—Evidence from stock split announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 123-138.
    7. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    8. Benjamin R. Auer, 2019. "Does the strength of capital market anomalies exhibit seasonal patterns?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 91-103, January.
    9. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    10. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-138.
    11. Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Halloween Effect in Developed Stock Markets: A US Perspective," Working Papers 201914, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Analyzing the time-frequency lead–lag relationship between oil and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 470-494.
    13. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    14. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    15. Haibin Xie & Qilin Qin & Shouyang Wang, 2016. "Is Halloween Effect a New Puzzle? Evidence from Price Gap," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 19-31, November.
    16. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samios, Yiannis, 2021. "Halloween effect and active fund management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 534-544.
    17. Chui, David & Wing Cheng, Wui & Chi Chow, Sheung & LI, Ya, 2020. "Eastern Halloween effect: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Tomasz Schabek & Henrique Castro, 2017. "“Sell not only in May”. Seasonal Effects on Stock Markets," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 5-18.
    19. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2011. "Air pollution and stock returns in the US," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 374-383, June.
    20. Jochen M. Schmittmann & Jenny Pirschel & Steffen Meyer & Andreas Hackethal, 2015. "The Impact of Weather on German Retail Investors," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1143-1183.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:276110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fevszcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.