IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/agreko/269419.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting International Demand for and Supply of Protein Feed

Author

Listed:
  • McGuigan, S. M.
  • Nieuwoudt, W. L.

Abstract

South Africa is currently a net importer of protein meal with 1998 imports exceeding Rl billion. Information regarding the cost of future imports will assist South African decision makers with regard to stimulating the South African protein industry. A spreadsheet model which readily allows scenario analysis is developed to project future supply of and demand for protein feed. Estimated price elasticities of supply and demand enable the model to project equilibrium consumption and price until 2020. The model incorporates as growth parameters: income growth, population growth and income elasticity of demand. It also allows for income elasticities to decline as incomes rise. Assuming a 3% annual growth in supply, the model forecasts that real price for protein meal will remain relatively constant to 2020. However, if supply increases linearly price is forecast to increase 22% by 2020. Developing Asia, notably China, accounts for most demand growth and projections are sensitive to growth assumptions for China.

Suggested Citation

  • McGuigan, S. M. & Nieuwoudt, W. L., 2001. "Projecting International Demand for and Supply of Protein Feed," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 40(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:269419
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/269419/files/05-%20McGuigan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/269419/files/05-%20McGuigan.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.269419?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:269419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeasaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.