'N Ekonomiese Evaluering Van Herstruktureringsmoontlikhede In Die Swartland

The South African grain-producing regions have suffered severe fluctuations as regard national yields, resulting in measures being taken in respect of certain cereals to bring the supply in line with the national demand. The Swartland is one of the more stable wheat producing regions and the drastic cut in wheat prices during the 1988/89 season caused large-scale dissatisfaction amongst the producers, which in turn led to an investigation into restructuring possibilities in the Swartland. The point of departure was the creation of a representative farming model for the Middle Swartland subregion. Information was gathered by means of postal questionnaires. The dynamic linear programming technique was applied to this model over a twelve year period. The risk factor was then incorporated by applying the Target MOTAD programming technique to the model. A single cash injection of R130 per hectare was necessary to get the DLP model to function successfully. In the DLP model the solution stabilised after a five year period, while the risk model stabilised after eight years. Different cropping and livestock patterns were derived from the models. The general conclusion is that the restructuring of farming patterns in the Swartland has definite potential.