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Free Trade and a Case of Local Tomato Production

Author

Listed:
  • Bayard, Budry
  • Chen, Lijun
  • Thompson, Henry

Abstract

This note looks at the time series evidence of the effect of NAFTA on Alabama tomato production using data up to the start of NAFTA to predict the trend in its absence. The time series is stationary with a constant mean and variance. An autoregressive model with one lag makes the forecast verified by impact analysis. The average yearly production loss over the 8 NAFTA years is estimated to be 85 thousand cwt, worth over $2 million at the average price implying total lost revenue of over $17 million. There is also evidence that imports and peso depreciation lower Alabama production.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayard, Budry & Chen, Lijun & Thompson, Henry, 2009. "Free Trade and a Case of Local Tomato Production," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aergaa:178231
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.178231
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/178231/files/8_2_6.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2013. "US Cotton Exports and Bilateral Exchange Rates," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11.
    2. Kosse, Elijah & Devadoss, Stephen, 2016. "Welfare Analysis of the U.S.-Mexican Tomato Suspension Agreement," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252726, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2010. "Textile Producer Cotton Imports and the Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 21831, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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