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Analysing the impact of COVID-19 on urban transitions and urban-regional dynamics in Australia

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  • Nygaard, Christian A.
  • Parkinson, Sharon

Abstract

In this paper, we draw on insights from economic theory on urban growth, large shocks and spatial dynamics to assess COVID-19 flow-on effects and potential disruptive legacy in urban-regional dynamics. Urban dynamics in Australia are assessed at national, regional and intra-urban scales. Long-term and short-term urban dynamics are analysed against random growth, locational fundamentals and increasing returns theories of urban growth and adjustment. A focus in Australia and elsewhere is the potential effect of COVID-19 on where people want to live, enabled in part by technological connectivity that releases some workers from proximity to work constraints when choosing a home. Our results suggest that urbanisation trends and adjustments to shocks differ for capital cities and noncapital cities. At the interregional migration level, Australia’s largest urban system, Sydney, is characterised by a cointegration relationship between outmigration and Sydney property prices relative to other housing markets. At finer spatial scales, COVID-19 had a negative impact on house prices within Sydney and may, for some micro-geographies and/or towns and regional centres, lead to significant change. However, typically this effect on houses (not units) began to dissipate in the period June-November 2020, when also controlling for housing policy pre- and post-COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Nygaard, Christian A. & Parkinson, Sharon, 2021. "Analysing the impact of COVID-19 on urban transitions and urban-regional dynamics in Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(04), January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:342972
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.342972
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    Cited by:

    1. Buckle, Caitlin & Werner, Greta & Marshall, Nancy & Searle, Glen & Osbaldiston, Nick & Sarkar, Somwrita & Kundu, Durba & Gurran, Nicole, 2024. "Place-based drivers and effective management of population growth and change in regional Australia," SocArXiv pt9df, Center for Open Science.

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    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development;

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