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Forecasting of the economic crisis using business cycles patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina VIŞAN

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Dorel AILENEI

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

The current global economic crisis has brought to the forefront of scientific research the issues of business cycles, particularly highlighting signals that predict ruptures in the normal dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations. In this sense a very important concern for the specialists relates to the identification of instruments capable of describing business cycles as accurately as possible. The problem is quite complicated because of the irregular (duration and amplitude) and asymmetric (by comparing recessionary gaps to inflation gaps) shapes. A very effective tool used for this purpose is the random recursive algorithm BBQ of James Engel. The authors aim to test the validity of this algorithm for the Romanian economy using monthly frequency data from 1991:01- 2012:05 period for the industrial production in order to identify specific characteristics of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina VIŞAN & Dorel AILENEI, 2013. "Forecasting of the economic crisis using business cycles patterns," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(10(587)), pages 97-110, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xx:y:2013:i:10(587):p:97-110
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