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Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul RASHID

    (International Islamic University (IIU), Islamabad)

  • Qaiser ABBAS

    (International Islamic University (IIU), Islamabad)

Abstract

This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul RASHID & Qaiser ABBAS, 2011. "Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(9(562)), pages 103-128, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:9(562):y:2011:i:9(562):p:103-128
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2019. "Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Šlefendorfas Gediminas, 2016. "Bankruptcy Prediction Model for Private Limited Companies of Lithuania," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(1), pages 134-152, January.
    3. Khushbu Agrawal, 2015. "Default Prediction Using Piotroski’s F-score," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5_suppl), pages 175-186, October.
    4. Shilpa H. Shetty & Theresa Nithila Vincent, 2021. "The Role of Board Independence and Ownership Structure in Improving the Efficacy of Corporate Financial Distress Prediction Model: Evidence from India," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. Atta Ullah & Chen Pinglu & Saif Ullah & Ningyu Qian & Mubasher Zaman, 2023. "Impact of intellectual capital efficiency on financial stability in banks: Insights from an emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1858-1871, April.
    7. Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Hameed, Zahid & Maqbool, Adnan & Azam, Rauf i, 2013. "Assessing the Financial Failure Using Z-Score and Current Ratio: A Case of Sugar Sector Listed Companies of Karachi Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 60787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Xiaodong Teng & Bao-Guang Chang & Kun-Shan Wu, 2021. "The Role of Financial Flexibility on Enterprise Sustainable Development during the COVID-19 Crisis—A Consideration of Tangible Assets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Syeda Tabinda Rubab & Nadia Hanif & Syeda Ambreen Fatima Bukhari & Umer Munir & Mubasher Muhammad Kamran, 2022. "The Impact Of Financial Distress On Financial Performance Of Manufacturing Firms Listed At Pakistan Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 382-391.

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