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The Impact Of The Pacifying Police Units (Upp) Program On Violent Crime In Rio De Janeiro: An Analysis Using The Synthetic Control Method

Author

Listed:
  • Alexsandro Roberto Nascimento Ordonez

    (Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC))

  • Giovana Cavaggioni Bigliazzi

    (Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC))

  • Victor Hugo Barboza Pacheco

    (Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC))

Abstract

This paper identifies the impact of the Pacifying Police Units (UPP) program on violent crimes in the city of Rio de Janeiro (homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) between 2008 and 2013. We compared crime in the city of Rio de Janeiro with crime in a synthetic counterfactual with similar characteristics. Thus, we verified the trend of violent homicides in the regions and, consequently, we evaluated the policy established in Rio de Janeiro. We use data from public sources such as DataSUS, IBGE, CAGED and IPEA. The main results show that the synthetic counterfactual for the city of Rio de Janeiro presented a difference in crime trajectory compared to the actual city. After treatment, we can observe a decline in the homicide rate compared to the synthetic control, with approximately 195 lives saved in the period. The robustness of results were assessed using the Leave-One-Out test.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexsandro Roberto Nascimento Ordonez & Giovana Cavaggioni Bigliazzi & Victor Hugo Barboza Pacheco, 2020. "The Impact Of The Pacifying Police Units (Upp) Program On Violent Crime In Rio De Janeiro: An Analysis Using The Synthetic Control Method," Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), Mackenzie Presbyterian University, Social and Applied Sciences Center, vol. 17(2), pages 114-141, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:aft:journl:v:17:2:2020:jul:dec:p:114-141
    DOI: 105935/1808-2785/rem.v17n2p.114-141
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of crime; Rio de Janeiro; synthetic control; UPP; violent crime.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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