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Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts

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  • Steffen Osterloh

Abstract

In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the period from 1995 to 2005. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures reveals that the accuracy of the 2-years forecasts is low relative to a simple naïve forecast. This observation can mainly be explained by a systematic overestimation of the growth rates by the forecasters. Moreover, the lack of accuracy can also be explained partly by insufficient information efficiency as well as imitation behaviour. Finally, it is shown that notwithstanding the common errors which affected the accuracy of all forecasters mainly because of their systematic overestimation, they differ significantly in their forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Osterloh, 2008. "Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v54_y2008_i1_q1_p27-57
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    Keywords

    business cycle forecasting; forecast evaluation; Consensus forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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