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Oil Price Uncertainty and M&A Activity

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  • Samuel D. Barrows, Magnus Blomkvist, Nebojsa Dimic, and Milos Vulanovic

Abstract

This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector. Analyzing this industry enables us to construct a natural forward-looking measure of oil price uncertainty, namely the implied crude oil volatility. Using a sample of U.S. firms in the oil and gas sector from 1994-2018 containing 4,323 announced transactions, we document that oil price uncertainty is negatively related to future M&A activity. Uncertainty is mainly a driver of horizontal and vertical M&A activity, where upstream firms are more affected by this uncertainty than downstream firms. Our results lend support to a real options explanation of investment under uncertainty where firms choose to defer investments as a response to increased uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel D. Barrows, Magnus Blomkvist, Nebojsa Dimic, and Milos Vulanovic, 2023. "Oil Price Uncertainty and M&A Activity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej44-4-vulanovic
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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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