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Natural Gas Storage Forecasts: Is the Crowd Wiser?

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  • Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Alexandre Garel, and Ivan Indriawan

Abstract

This paper examines the usefulness of crowdsourced relative to professional forecasts for natural gas storage changes. We find that crowdsourced forecasts are less accurate than professional forecasts on average. We investigate possible reasons for this inferior performance and find evidence of a greater divergence of opinions and a lower incorporation of publicly available information among crowd analysts. We further show that crowdsourced consensus forecast does not influence the market's expectation of gas storage changes beyond what is already contained in professional consensus forecast, suggesting that crowdsourced forecasts provide little new information. Overall, our results indicate that the incremental usefulness of crowdsourced forecasts for gas market stakeholders is very limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Alexandre Garel, and Ivan Indriawan, 2020. "Natural Gas Storage Forecasts: Is the Crowd Wiser?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5), pages 213-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej41-5-indriawan
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    Cited by:

    1. Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2024.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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