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Common Unobserved Determinants of Intraday Electricity Prices

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  • Nikolaos S. Thomaidis
  • Gordon H. Dash
  • Nina Kajiji

Abstract

This paper employs multilevel factor modelling techniques to unravel systematicunobserved determinants of the intraday and interzonal price curve dynamics forthe Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection. These techniquesmake an explicit separation of global drivers from region-specific common factors, thereby facilitating the identification of the actual sources of co-variability.Our empirical findings confirm the hypothesis that the common unobserved determinants of power prices in the PJM interconnection obey a block structure, someof which affect different segments of our panel. We argue that a multilevel factorapproach offers a more systematic and transparent representation of intertemporal and cross-sectional patterns in PJM electricity prices compared to alternativebrute-force VARMAX parametrizations and the single-level factor models, whichare often put forward in the literature as viable modelling alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Gordon H. Dash & Nina Kajiji, 2019. "Common Unobserved Determinants of Intraday Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(The New E).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-si1-thomaidis
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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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