IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/ej40-6-welisch.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncovering Bidder Behaviour in the German PV Auction Pilot: Insights from Agent-based Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Marijke Welisch and Jan Kreiss

Abstract

This paper analyses bidder behaviour in the German photovoltaic (PV) auction pilot. It uses a novel approach combining insights from data analysis and decision theory to optimise an agent-based simulation model. We model both a uniform pricing (UP) scheme, a pay-as-bid (PAB) scheme, and a benchmark case, where agents adapt their bidding strategy. The findings are contrasted with empirical auction outcomes. The comparison shows that, especially in the early rounds, bid prices were above the costs - possibly due to uncertainties and false expectations concerning competition. This is particularly visible in the first round. Adapting their expectations to a higher competition level, bidders in the pay-as-bid simulation subsequently decrease their bids. From simulating a separate auction for arable land bidders, we see that this bidder type reduces support costs substantially and that an implicitly discriminatory auction yields more aggressive bids and can induce further cost reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marijke Welisch and Jan Kreiss, 2019. "Uncovering Bidder Behaviour in the German PV Auction Pilot: Insights from Agent-based Modeling," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-6-welisch
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3426
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anatolitis, Vasilios & Azanbayev, Alina & Fleck, Ann-Katrin, 2022. "How to design efficient renewable energy auctions? Empirical insights from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Geßner, Daniel, 2023. "Performance of Renewable Energy Policies - Evidence from Germany's Transition to Auctions," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 105, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Kell, Nicholas P. & van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Li, Liang & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Simulating offshore wind contract for difference auctions to prepare bid strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    4. Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra & Müsgens, Felix, 2021. "Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. del Río, Pablo & Kiefer, Christoph P., 2023. "Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Kell, Nicholas P. & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Morstyn, Thomas & Lazakis, Iraklis & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Methodology to prepare for UK’s offshore wind Contract for Difference auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    7. Taimyra Batz Li~neiro & Felix Musgens, 2021. "Lessons Learned from Photovoltaic Auctions in Germany," Papers 2104.07536, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-6-welisch. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Williams (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.