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OPECs Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity

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  • Axel Pierru, James L. Smith, and Tamim Zamrik

Abstract

OPEC claims to hold and use spare production capacity to stabilize the crude oil market. We study the impact of that buffer on the volatility of oil prices. After estimating the stochastic process that generates shocks to demand and supply, and assessing OPEC's limited ability to accurately measure and offset those shocks, we find that OPEC's use of spare capacity has reduced price volatility, perhaps by as much as half. We also apply the principle of revealed preference to infer the implicit loss function that rationalizes OPEC's investment in spare capacity and compare it to other estimates of the cost of crude oil supply shortfalls. That comparison suggests that OPEC's buffer capacity was in line with global macroeconomic needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Pierru, James L. Smith, and Tamim Zamrik, 2018. "OPECs Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej39-2-pierru
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    Cited by:

    1. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal, 2020. "Oil price jumps and the uncertainty of oil supplies in a geopolitical perspective: The role of OPEC’s spare capacity," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 18-35.
    3. Peter Y. Jang & Mario G. Beruvides, 2020. "Time-Varying Influences of Oil-Producing Countries on Global Oil Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    5. Al Rousan, Sahel & Sbia, Rashid & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2018. "A dynamic network analysis of the world oil market: Analysis of OPEC and non-OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-41.
    6. Karanfil, Fatih & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "The opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Razek, Noha H.A. & Michieka, Nyakundi M., 2019. "OPEC and non-OPEC production, global demand, and the financialization of oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 201-225.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2018. "The gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi : Saudi Arabia's new economy dream at risk ?," Working Papers hal-01965085, HAL.
    9. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Zhao, Jing, 2022. "Exploring the influence of the main factors on the crude oil price volatility: An analysis based on GARCH-MIDAS model with Lasso approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. de Albuquerquemello, Vinícius Phillipe & de Medeiros, Rennan Kertlly & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Maia, Sinézio Fernandes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil price: Does exist an optimal econometric model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 578-591.
    12. Kaushik Ranjan Bandyopadhyay, 2022. "Oil and Gas Markets and COVID-19: A Critical Rumination on Drivers, Triggers, and Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Blazquez, Jorge & Galeotti, Marzio & Manzano, Baltasar & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar, 2021. "Effects of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms: Insights from a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 145-169.
    14. Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    16. Olga Yu. Gorodetskaya & Gulnara I. Alekseeva & Kira A. Artamonova & Natalia A. Sadovnikova & Svetlana G. Babich & Elvira N. Iamalova & Anatoliy M. Tarasov, 2021. "Investment Attractiveness of the Russian Energy Sector MNCs: Assessment and Challenges," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207.
    17. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Liquidity, surprise volume and return premia in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-104.
    18. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    19. Parnes, Dror, 2019. "Heterogeneous noncompliance with OPEC's oil production cuts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 289-300.
    20. Anna A. Bakulina & Olga V. Panina & Stanislav E. Prokofiev & Natalia L. Krasyukova & Valery L. Abramov & Natalia V. Sergeeva & Olga V. Loseva & Tatiana G. Kasyanenko & Elena V. Takmakova, 2021. "The Black Sea Region Energy Cooperation: Current Trends and Prospects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 257-266.

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