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Implied Volatility of Oil Futures Options Surrounding OPEC Meetings

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  • Stephen M. Horan, Jeffrey H. Peterson, and James Mahar

Abstract

This study examines implied volatility from options on crude oil futures surrounding OPEC meetings. Studies suggest that the implied volatility embedded in option prices should drift upward prior to scheduled information releases and drop afterward. As predicted, volatility drifts upward as the meeting approaches and drops by three percent after the first day of the meeting and by five percent over a five-day window period. Surprisingly, highly visible bi-annual conferences experience little drop in volatility. Rather, the most pronounced decline in volatility is associated with meetings of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which makes production recommendations to the larger conference. The results have implications for the debate about whether OPEC influences oil prices and provide an explanation for previously documented return anomalies in crude oil futures surrounding OPEC meetings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Horan, Jeffrey H. Peterson, and James Mahar, 2004. "Implied Volatility of Oil Futures Options Surrounding OPEC Meetings," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 103-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2004v25-03-a06
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
    2. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    3. Derek Lemoine & Sarah Kapnick, 2024. "Financial markets value skillful forecasts of seasonal climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Plante, Michael, 2019. "OPEC in the news," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 163-172.
    5. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Snarska, Małgorzata, 2021. "The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Berk, Istemi & Rauch, Jannes, 2016. "Regulatory interventions in the US oil and gas sector: How do the stock markets perceive the CFTC's announcements during the 2008 financial crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 337-348.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Seong-Min Yoon, 2019. "OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(4), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "How do OPEC news and structural breaks impact returns and volatility in crude oil markets? Further evidence from a long memory process," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-354.
    9. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. López, Raquel, 2018. "The behaviour of energy-related volatility indices around scheduled news announcements: Implications for variance swap investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 356-364.
    11. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Tianyang Wang & Jian Yang, 2018. "The impact of crude oil inventory announcements on prices: Evidence from derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 38-65, January.
    12. Omid Faseli, 2020. "The relationship between European Brent crude oil price development and the US macroeconomy," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 80-87, January.
    13. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "The smooth transition autoregressive target zone model with the Gaussian stochastic volatility and TGARCH error terms with applications," Econometrics 0508015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Spencer, Simon & Bredin, Don, 2019. "Agreement matters: OPEC announcement effects on WTI term structure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 589-609.
    15. Wu, Ling & Hock Ow, Siew, 2021. "The Impact of News Sentiment on the Stock Market Fluctuation: The Case of Selected Energy Sector," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(3), pages 1-21.
    16. Tseng Tseng-Chan & Chung Huimin & Huang Chin-Sheng, 2009. "Modeling Jump and Continuous Components in the Volatility of Oil Futures," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-30, May.
    17. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
    18. Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael, 2010. "OPEC announcements and their effects on crude oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1010-1016, February.
    19. Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe, and Kirsten R. Soneson, 2013. "OPEC "Fair Price" Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    20. Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Fundamentals, Derivatives Market Information and Oil Price Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 317-344, April.
    21. Schmidbauer, Harald & Rösch, Angi, 2012. "OPEC news announcements: Effects on oil price expectation and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1656-1663.
    22. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
    23. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2010. "The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1467-1476, November.
    24. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Raquel López, 2023. "The effect of macroeconomic news announcements on the implied volatility of commodities: The role of survey releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1499-1530, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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