Street homelessness: A disappearing act?

The number of homeless individuals sleeping on the streets in the United States has been declining rapidly, according to annual counts conducted since 2007. This has caused some to celebrate that policies geared toward ending homelessness are working. However, this paper shows that drastic changes in street counts in particular communities account for the majority of the national reduction, suggesting that miscounting may be playing a major role. An alternative explanation for large count changes is that increasing homeless criminalization measures are leading more of the homeless to stay out of sight. Another red flag is that sheltered homeless counts, which are much more reliable than street counts, have been remaining steady. This is true not just among families-who rarely sleep on the streets-but also among individuals-who are more likely to transition between the streets and shelters. Meanwhile, substantial expansion of permanent supportive housing appears to play only a minor role in the national street count reduction, although the possibility that altered homeless migration patterns are partially masking its effect cannot be ruled out. Ultimately, the evidence suggests that it is too soon to declare that we know what works in ending homelessness.