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The Tyranny of Budget Forecasts

Author

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  • J. D. Foster
  • James C. Miller

Abstract

The evolving federal budget process has placed increasing demands on, and given unique powers to, the economic forecasters at OMB, Treasury, CBO, and the Joint Tax Committee of Congress. On the whole, the forecasters have been highly professional in their work, but differences in estimating techniques and, especially, constraints imposed on their analysis by elected officials have limited their credibility. Both the Administration and Congress "game" the system and even ignore the budget rules when convenient. Thus, a sophisticated budget process can help, but cannot assure, sound fiscal policy in the absence of political will to make hard decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • J. D. Foster & James C. Miller, 2000. "The Tyranny of Budget Forecasts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 205-215, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:205-215
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.14.3.205
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.14.3.205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pereira, Manuel C, 2009. "A new measure of fiscal shocks based on budget forecasts and its implications," MPRA Paper 17475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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