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The Global Infrastructure Gap: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for Distinction

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  • Camille Gardner
  • Peter Blair Henry

Abstract

In 2015, the World Bank claimed that rich-country private capital could: (i) close the infrastructure services gap in poor countries, (ii) achieve the sustainable development goals, and (iii) make money by moving from "billions to trillions" of investment in poor-country infrastructure. Our framework distinguishes those poor countries in which the Bank's claim is tenable from those where it is not. For a given poor country, the framework reveals that investing a dollar in infrastructure is efficient if the social rate of return on infrastructure clears two hurdles: (a) the social rate of return on private capital in the poor country, and (b) the social rate of return on private capital in rich countries. Applying the framework to the only comprehensive, cross-country dataset of social rates of return on infrastructure indicates that in 1985 just 7 of 53 poor countries cleared the dual hurdles in both paved roads and electricity.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Gardner & Peter Blair Henry, 2023. "The Global Infrastructure Gap: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for Distinction," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1318-1358, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:61:y:2023:i:4:p:1318-58
    DOI: 10.1257/jel.20221530
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

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