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Constructing Confidence Intervals for BIFSG Disparity Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Derby
  • Connor Dowd
  • Jacob Mortenson

Abstract

This paper describes a method to construct confidence intervals for estimates of disparities in outcomes between racial/ethnic groups when race and ethnicity are estimated using Bayesian Improved First Name and Surname Geocoding (BIFSG). Standard errors produced by regression packages understate the uncertainty in these estimates because they fail to incorporate noise arising from estimating race and ethnicity. This can produce false confidence when assessing the direction and magnitude of disparities. Conversely, the bootstrapping approach introduced in this paper incorporates uncertainty arising from the use of BIFSG. However, this procedure does not correct for any statistical bias associated with using BIFSG.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Derby & Connor Dowd & Jacob Mortenson, 2024. "Constructing Confidence Intervals for BIFSG Disparity Estimates," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 114, pages 638-643, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:114:y:2024:p:638-43
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20241035
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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