IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v113y2023p151-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Asturias
  • Emin Dinlersoz
  • John Haltiwanger
  • Rebecca Hutchinson

Abstract

Are business applications early indicators of economic activity? Our analysis indicates that monthly year-over-year growth in applications for likely employer businesses significantly leads growth in total nonfarm employment and has a positive correlation with it. In addition, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in almost all other monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators considered. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Business applications for likely employers appear to be a strong leading indicator of aggregate economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Asturias & Emin Dinlersoz & John Haltiwanger & Rebecca Hutchinson, 2023. "Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 151-155, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:151-55
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20231053
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20231053.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20231053.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/pandp.20231053?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2023. "Local Origins of Business Formation," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2023(7), pages 1-12, November.
    2. Emin Dinlersoz & Can Dogan & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "Starting Up AI," Working Papers 24-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:151-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.