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Brexit Uncertainty: Trade Externalities beyond Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro G. Graziano
  • Kyle Handley
  • Nuno Limão

Abstract

We examine if Brexit uncertainty has trade externalities beyond Europe. Using detailed data on export values and participation, tariffs, and Brexit probabilities prior to the referendum, we estimate ongoing negative trade-uncertainty elasticities between the United Kingdom and its non-European partner countries in preferential trade agreements that will require renegotiation post-Brexit. We use them to isolate the impact of the referendum on export values and net entry; we find effects similar to those identified by Graziano et al. (2018) for the UK and EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro G. Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2020. "Brexit Uncertainty: Trade Externalities beyond Europe," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 552-556, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:552-56
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201021
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E120753V1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    2. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    4. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    5. Jun Du & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2022. "UK trade in the time of COVID‐19: A review," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1409-1446, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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