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NKV: A New Keynesian Model with Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Adrian
  • Fernando Duarte
  • Nellie Liang
  • Pawel Zabczyk

Abstract

We present a New Keynesian model with endogenous risk. The conditional output gap volatility depends on the price of risk, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also shift conditional output risk. The model fits estimates of the conditional output gap distribution 1 to 12 quarters ahead and suggests an intertemporal risk return trade-off for policymakers. Via the impact on risk taking, easy monetary policy lowers short-term downside risks to growth but increases medium-term risks. The framework can be used to jointly consider macroprudential and monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Fernando Duarte & Nellie Liang & Pawel Zabczyk, 2020. "NKV: A New Keynesian Model with Vulnerability," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 470-476, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:470-76
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201023
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Benefits and costs: The impact of capital control on growth-at-risk in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Financial crises and shadow banks: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 74-92.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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