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Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Jessamyn Schaller
  • Price Fishback
  • Kelli Marquardt

Abstract

This paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937–2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960–1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessamyn Schaller & Price Fishback & Kelli Marquardt, 2020. "Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 236-240, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:236-40
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201109
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    2. Fumarco, Luca & Principe, Francesco, 2021. "More goals, fewer babies? On national team performance and birth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Jason M. Lindo & Krishna Regmi & Isaac Swensen, 2020. "Stable Income, Stable Family," NBER Working Papers 27753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2023. "The US COVID-19 baby bust and rebound," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2145-2168, October.
    5. Bernt Bratsberg & Selma Walther, 2024. "The impact of flexibility at work on fertility," IFS Working Papers W24/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Duque, Valentina & Schmitz, Lauren L., 2020. "The Influence of Early-life Economic Shocks on Long-term Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S. Great Depression," Working Papers 2020-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    7. Garrett Anstreicher, 2020. "Family Formation and the Great Recession," Working Papers 20-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Libertad González & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Working Papers 1385, Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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