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The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft

Author

Listed:
  • Martha J. Bailey
  • Eric Chyn

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of the Vietnam War on fertility rates in the late 1960s and early 1970s. For draft-eligible men wishing to avoid military service, the hardship deferment (III-A) for paternity created a powerful incentive to father a child. We provide a time series analysis suggesting that the risk of being drafted and the availability of the paternity deferments significantly increased US fertility rates, especially among childless women likely to be partnered with draft-eligible men. Our results suggest caution in attributing the decline in fertility after 1970 solely to the legalization of abortion.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha J. Bailey & Eric Chyn, 2020. "The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 220-225, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:220-25
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201106
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    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20201106
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E120800V1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martha J. Bailey & Emily A. Beam & Anna Wentz, 2021. "Does younger age at marriage affect divorce? Evidence from Johnson's Executive Order 11241," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1328-1345, July.
    2. Xintong Wang & Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2020. "The Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on the Long-Term Health of Veterans: A Bounds Analysis," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 234, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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