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Policy Options at the Zero Lower Bound When Foresight is Limited

Author

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  • Michael Woodford
  • Yinxi Xie

Abstract

We reconsider several monetary and fiscal policies that have been proposed as tools of stabilization policy when conventional interest-rate policy is constrained by the zero lower bound on interest rates, assuming that households and firms are capable of explicit forward planning over only a limited horizon. The predicted effects of all of the policies are somewhat different than under rational expectations, but credible announcements about future policy can still influence behavior, and there is, if anything, an even stronger case for pursuing systematic policies outside crisis periods in order to shape expectations during a crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Woodford & Yinxi Xie, 2019. "Policy Options at the Zero Lower Bound When Foresight is Limited," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 433-437, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:433-37
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191084
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France, Working Paper Series no. 736, Banque de France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02400611, HAL.
    2. Jing Cynthia Wu & Yinxi Xie, 2022. "(Un)Conventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 30706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chadha, J. S., 2023. "Mr Putin and the Chronicle of a Normalisation Foretold," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2354, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Bersson, Betsy & Hürtgen, Patrick & Paustian, Matthias, 2019. "Expectations formation, sticky prices, and the ZLB," Discussion Papers 34/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Woodford, Michael & Xie, Yinxi, 2022. "Fiscal and monetary stabilization policy at the zero lower bound: Consequences of limited foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 18-35.
    6. Martin Eichenbaum, 2023. "On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1221-1237, November.
    7. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    8. Elizabeth Bersson & Patrick Hürtgen & Matthias Paustian, 2024. "Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 365-393, March.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France," Working papers 736, Banque de France.
    11. Bianchi-Vimercati, Riccardo & Eichenbaum, Martin & Guerreiro, Joao, 2024. "Fiscal stimulus with imperfect expectations: Spending vs. tax policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Kopiec, Paweł, 2024. "Monetary-Fiscal Forward Guidance," MPRA Paper 120563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
    14. Chang Liu & Yinxi Xie, 2023. "Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures," Staff Working Papers 23-30, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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