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Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi

Author

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  • Aaditya Mattoo
  • Prachi Mishra
  • Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of China's exchange rate changes on exports of developing countries in third markets. The degree of competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role in the identification strategy. The strategy exploits variation across exporters, importers, products and time—afforded both by disaggregated trade data and bilateral exchange rates—to estimate this "competitor country effect." There is robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant effect. A 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports at the product level on average by about 1.5-2.5 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaditya Mattoo & Prachi Mishra & Arvind Subramanian, 2017. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 344-366, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:344-66
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20150293
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    Cited by:

    1. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2023. "Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2020. "When Time Matters: Eastern Europe's Response to Chinese Competition," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    3. Cali,Massimiliano & Ghose,Devaki & Montfaucon,Angella Faith Lapukeni & Ruta,Michele, 2022. "Trade Policy and Exporters’ Resilience : Evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10068, The World Bank.
    4. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    5. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Gilberto Libanio & Diana Chaib, 2021. "The competition between China and Korea for export markets in Latin America: an analysis by technological categories," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 632, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    7. Ralph W. Huenemann, 2018. "United States–China Trade: President Trump's Misunderstandings," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 150-154, January.
    8. Benedikt Heid & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo, 2021. "Is competition from China so special?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 64-88, January.
    9. Fatum, Rasmus & Liu, Runjuan & Tong, Jiadong & Xu, Jiayun, 2018. "Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? Evidence from 2000 to 2011 Chinese customs data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 16-29.
    10. Jihyun Eum, 2019. "Impact of Chinese Renminbi on Korean Exports: Does Quality Matter?," Working Papers 2019-24, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    11. Rudi Purwono & Unggul Heriqbaldi & Miguel Angel Esquivias & M. Khoerul Mubin, 2022. "The American–China Trade War and Spillover Effects on Value-Added Exports from Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    12. Ignatia Martha Hendrati & Unggul Heriqbaldi & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Bekti Setyorani & Ari Dwi Jayanti, 2023. "Propagation of Economic Shocks from the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan to Selected Asian Economies: Does the Global Value Chain Matters?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 91-102, January.
    13. Rudi Purwono & Lilik Sugiharti & Rossanto Dwi Handoyo & Miguel Angel Esquivias, 2022. "Trade Liberalization and Comparative Advantage: Evidence from Indonesia and Asian Trade Partners," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Alexander C. Ugwukah & Daniel Kelly Kasili, 2023. "Historicizing the Emergence of China as a World Economic Power: Strategies, Challenges and Prospects," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(5), pages 561-573, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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