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Do Output Contractions Cause Investment in Fiscal Capacity?

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  • Christian Gillitzer

Abstract

This paper shows that an economic slump can induce a government to invest in fiscal capacity. Large negative income shocks stress the revenue-raising capability of narrow tax bases, making an increase in tax base breadth desirable relative to its fixed implementation cost. A broader tax base enables revenue to be raised at lower tax rates, and so lower deadweight loss. The behavior of US state governments during the Great Depression supports the model: states experiencing larger than average negative income shocks were more likely to adopt a retail sales tax than were states experiencing smaller than average income shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gillitzer, 2017. "Do Output Contractions Cause Investment in Fiscal Capacity?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 189-227, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:189-227
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20150161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Price V. Fishback & Valentina Kachanovskaya, 2010. "In Search of the Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 16561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
    3. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Traviss Cassidy & Mark Dincecco & Ugo Antonio Troiano, 2024. "The Introduction of the Income Tax, Fiscal Capacity, and Migration: Evidence from US States," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 359-393, February.
    2. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    3. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Limberg, Julian, 2022. "Building a tax state in the 21st century: Fiscal pressure, political regimes, and consumption taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Daniele Coen-Pirani & Michael Wooley, 2018. "Fiscal Centralization: Theory and Evidence from the Great Depression," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 39-61, May.
    6. Grier, Robin & Young, Andrew T. & Grier, Kevin, 2022. "The causal effects of rule of law & property rights on fiscal capacity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Andrea Papadia, 2024. "Fiscal policy under constraints: Fiscal capacity and austerity during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(1), pages 90-118, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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