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Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans

Author

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  • Megan T. Stevenson
  • Jennifer L. Doleac

Abstract

We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic risk assessments in sentencing. We find that judges changed sentencing practices in response to the risk assessment, but that discretion played a large role in mediating its impact. Judges deviated from the recommendations associated with the algorithm in systematic ways, suggestive of alternative objectives. As a result, risk assessment did not lead to detectable gains in terms of public safety or reduced incarceration rates. Using simulations, we show that strict adherence to the sentencing recommendations associated with the algorithm would have had benefits (less incarceration) but also some costs (increased sentences for youth).

Suggested Citation

  • Megan T. Stevenson & Jennifer L. Doleac, 2024. "Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 382-414, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:382-414
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220620
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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