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How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments

Author

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  • Anna Bindler
  • Randi Hjalmarsson

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of punishment severity on jury decision-making using archival data from London's Old Bailey Criminal Court from 1772 to 1871. We exploit two natural experiments in English history, resulting in sharp decreases in punishment severity: the offense-specific abolition of capital punishment and the temporary halt of penal transportation during the American Revolution. Using difference-in-differences to study the former and a pre-post design for the latter, we find a large, significant and permanent impact on jury behavior: juries are more likely to convict overall and across crime categories. Moreover, the effect size differs with defendants' gender.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2018. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 36-78, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:36-78
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20170214
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2019. "Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1971-2017.
    2. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson & Stephen Machin & Melissa Rubio-Ramos, 2023. "Murphy's Law or Luck of the Irish? Disparate Treatment of the Irish in 19th Century Courts," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 228, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2021. "The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime [State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3063-3103.
    4. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2020. "The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 297-339.
    5. Randi Hjalmarsson & Matthew J. Lindquist, 2022. "The Health Effects of Prison," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 234-270, October.
    6. Augustine Denteh & D'esir'e K'edagni, 2022. "Misclassification in Difference-in-differences Models," Papers 2207.11890, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. Bindler, Anna & Machin, Stephen & Hjalmarsson, Randi & Rubio-Ramos, Melissa, 2023. "Murphy’s Law or Luck of the Irish? Disparate Treatment of the Irish in 19th Century Courts," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 661, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Bryan C. McCannon & Zachary Porreca, 2025. "The right to counsel: criminal prosecution in 19th century London," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 285-321, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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