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US Treasury Auctions: A High-Frequency Identification of Supply Shocks

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  • Maxime Phillot

Abstract

We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to US Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices decline, volatility climbs, and corporate bond yields increase. The risk premium rises, the equity premium falls, inflation expectations soar, and the liquidity premium decreases.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxime Phillot, 2025. "US Treasury Auctions: A High-Frequency Identification of Supply Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 245-273, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:1:p:245-73
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210243
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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