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The Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Author

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  • Lukasz A. Drozd
  • Sergey Kolbin
  • Jaromir B. Nosal

Abstract

Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that while (i) and (ii) fall short of the data, (iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz A. Drozd & Sergey Kolbin & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2021. "The Trade-Comovement Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 78-120, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:78-120
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170386
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.
    2. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Byrne, Shane & Devine, Kenneth & King, Michael & McCarthy, Yvonne & Palmer, Christopher, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
    5. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
    6. Lisack Noëmie & Sajedi Rana & Lloyd Simon, 2022. "Aggregation Across Each Nation: Aggregator Choice and Macroeconomic Dynamics [Agrégation entre pays : choix d’agrégateur et dynamiques macroéconomiques]," Working papers 894, Banque de France.
    7. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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