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The Fundamental Determinants of the Terms of Trade Reconsidered: Long-run and Long-period Equilibrium

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  • Darity, William A, Jr

Abstract

Ronald Findlay's analysis of the long-run equilibrium (uniform international growth rates) determinants of the terms of trade, in the context of North-South models of trade and growth, is reconsidered when the North is a Keynesian and a Kaleckian economy. Also examined are the determinants of the terms of trade in long-period equilibrium (uniform profit rates), so that the consequences of capital mobility are accounted for. Two surprising results are noted: first, the long-run terms of trade when the North is a Kaleckian economy will be independent of the North's markup and, second, in the long-period it is theoretically possible for the North to raise its markup, but experience a deterioration in its own terms of trade. Copyright 1990 by American Economic Association.

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  • Darity, William A, Jr, 1990. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Terms of Trade Reconsidered: Long-run and Long-period Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 816-827, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:80:y:1990:i:4:p:816-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Sérgio Kannebley Júnior & Amaury Patrick Gremaud & Ricardo de Almeida Rennó, 2001. "A Tendência Secular dos Termos de Troca Brasileiros Revisitida - 1850 a 2000," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 018, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-656, April.
    4. Ziesemer, Thomas HW, 1994. "Economic Development and Endogenous Terms-of-Trade Determination: Review and Reinterpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis," MPRA Paper 54864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ronald Johnson, 1993. "Terms of trade shifts and international macroeconomic fundamentals," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 73-85, March.
    6. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    7. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, 2016. "Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade inamodelof cumulative causation andstructural change," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.
    8. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2008. "North-South Asymmetry in Returns to Scale, Uneven Development, and the Population Puzzle," TERG Discussion Papers 238, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    9. Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2013. "Preferential trade agreements and manufactured goods exports: does it matter whom you PTA with?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(34), pages 4754-4772, December.
    10. Shouvik Chakraborty & Prabirjit Sarkar, 2020. "From The Classical Economists To Empiricists: A Review Of The Terms Of Trade Controversy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1133, December.
    11. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Fiscal Space for Trade: How Could the International Trade Community Help?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-42, February.
    12. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2016. "Do Multinationals Deteriorate Developing Countries' Export Prices? The Impact of FDI on Net Barter Terms of Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(12), pages 1974-1999, December.
    13. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2001. "The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(4), pages 309-327, October.
    14. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lynn Mainwaring, 1998. "Transfers in a North‐South Growth Model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(5), pages 592-603, November.
    16. Blecker, Robert A., 1996. "The new economic integration: Structuralist models of North-South trade and investment liberalization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 321-345, September.
    17. Wacker, Konstantin M. & Großkurth, Philipp & Lakemann, Tabea, 2014. "Terms of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Development: A Case of Intra-Asian “Kicking Away the Ladder”?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 122, Asian Development Bank.
    18. Bernhard G. Gunter & Valeria Vargas Sejas, 2017. "Free Falling Terms of Trade Despite Industrialization: The Case of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series (BDRWPS) BDRWPS No. 33, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC).
    19. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2018. "North-South Trade and Uneven Development in a Classical Conventional Wage Share Growth Model," MPRA Paper 88631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Konstantin M. Wacker & Philipp Grosskurth & Tabea Lakemann, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment, Terms of Trade, and Quality Upgrading: What Is So Special about South Asia?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 28-55, March.
    21. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 1997. "Some estimates of Prebisch and Singer effects on the terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1873-1884, November.
    22. Thomas, Ziesemer, 1998. "A History of Economic Theorizing on the Prebisch-Singer Thesis," MPRA Paper 60502, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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