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Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises

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  • Valentin Haddad
  • Alan Moreira
  • Tyler Muir

Abstract

At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states—"policy puts"—explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states alter asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2025. "Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(1), pages 295-329, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:1:p:295-329
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Bo Becker & Efraim Benmelech, 2021. "The Resilience of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market During Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 28868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Asquith, Paul & Au, Andrea S. & Covert, Thomas & Pathak, Parag A., 2013. "The market for borrowing corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 155-182.
    5. Rohan Arora & Sermin Gungor & Joe Nesrallah & Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc & Jonathan Witmer, 2021. "The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-23, Bank of Canada.
    6. Boyarchenko, Nina & Kovner, Anna & Shachar, Or, 2020. "It’s what you say and what you buy: A holistic evaluation of the Corporate Credit Facilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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