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Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts

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  • Zhiguo He
  • Maggie Hu
  • Zhenping Wang
  • Vincent Yao

Abstract

We identify exposure to political risk by exploiting a unique variation around land lease extension protection after 2047 in Hong Kong's housing market due to historical arrangements. Relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with unprotected leases granted by the current government are sold at a discount of 8 percent; those with colonial leases suffer an additional discount of 8 percent. Incorporating estimated structural parameters that suggest an additional 20 percent ground rent after 2047, our model matches empirical discounts well across lease horizons. Discounts increase over time, particularly in areas with greater pessimism about the city's future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiguo He & Maggie Hu & Zhenping Wang & Vincent Yao, 2024. "Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(9), pages 2701-2747, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:114:y:2024:i:9:p:2701-47
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211242
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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