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The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization

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  • Alex Armand
  • Paul Atwell
  • Joseph F. Gomes

Abstract

We examine the role of FM radio in mitigating violent conflict. We collect original data on radio broadcasts encouraging defections during the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency. This constitutes the first quantitative evaluation of an active counterinsurgency policy that encourages defections through radio messages. Exploiting random topography-driven variation in radio coverage along with panel variation at the grid-cell level, we identify the causal effect of messaging on violence. Broadcasting defection messages increases defections and reduces fatalities, violence against civilians, and clashes with security forces. Income shocks have opposing effects on both the conflict and the effectiveness of messaging.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Armand & Paul Atwell & Joseph F. Gomes, 2020. "The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1395-1429, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:110:y:2020:i:5:p:1395-1429
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181135
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahia, Kalvin & Castells, Pau & Cruz, Genaro & Masaki, Takaaki & Pedrós, Xavier & Pfutze, Tobias & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2024. "The welfare effects of mobile broadband internet: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Joseph Flavian Gomes, 2020. "The health costs of ethnic distance: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 195-226, June.
    3. Bharati, Tushar & Jetter, Michael & Malik, Muhammad Nauman, 2024. "Types of communications technology and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Alex Armand & Paul Atwell & Joseph F. Gomes & Yannik Schenk, 2023. "It’s a Bird, it’s a Plane, it’s Superman! Using Mass Media to fight Intolerance," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Elisa Mougin, 2021. "Three essays in the political economy of information [Trois essais en économie politique de l’information]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03537938, HAL.
    6. Mougin, Elisa, 2024. "TV in times of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2017 elections in Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    7. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Terrorism, Media Coverage, and Education: Evidence from al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 727-763.
    8. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L Wright, 2024. "Team production on the battlefield: Evidence from NATO in Afghanistan," PSE Working Papers halshs-04610715, HAL.
    9. Gonzalez, Robert & Maffioli, Elisa M., 2024. "Is the phone mightier than the virus? Cellphone access and epidemic containment efforts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Elisa Mougin, 2021. "Three essays in the political economy of information [Trois essais en économie politique de l’information]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03537938, HAL.
    11. Tähtinen, Tuuli, 2024. "When Facebook Is the Internet: The Role of Social Media in Ethnic Conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    12. Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael & Parsons, Christopher, 2023. "Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC," IZA Discussion Papers 16054, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Arthur Blouin & Sharun W. Mukand & Sharun Mukand, 2022. "Mistaking Noise for Bias - Victimhood and Hutu-Tutsi Reconciliation in East Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9854, CESifo.
    14. Annalisa Frigo & Elisabetta Lodigiani & Sara Salomone, 2021. "For Children's Sake: Intergenerational Altruism and Parental Migration Intentions," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021030, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Rachel Cassidy & Anaya Dam & Wendy Janssens & Umair Kiani & Karlijn Morsink, 2022. "Father of the bride, or steel magnolias? Targeting men, women or both to reduce child marriage," IFS Working Papers W22/50, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Arthur Blouin & Sharun W. Mukand & Sharun Mukand, 2022. "Mistaking Noise for Bias - Victimhood and Hutu-Tutsi Reconciliation in East Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9854, CESifo.
    17. Blouin, Arthur & Mukand, Sharun W., 2022. "Mistaking noise for bias," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Blouin, Arthur & Mukand, Sharun W., 2022. "Mistaking Noise for Bias Victimhood and Hutu-Tutsi Reconciliation in East Africa," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 629, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    19. Rachel Cassidy & Anaya Dam & Wendy Janssens & Umair Kiani & Karlijn Morsink, 2024. "Targeting men, women or both to reduce child marriage," IFS Working Papers W24/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Rachel Cassidy & Anaya Dam & Wendy Janssens & Umair Kiani & Karlijn Morsink, 2024. "Targeting men, women or both to reduce child marriage," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-087/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 22 Oct 2024.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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