IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v105y2015i5p305-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lending Booms, Smart Bankers, and Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Anjan Thakor

Abstract

This paper develops a theory that explains why financial crises follow profitable lending booms. When agents exhibit the "availability heuristic" and there is a long period of banking profitability, all agents—banks, their investors, and regulators—end up in an "availability cascade," overestimating bankers' risk-management skills and underestimating the probability that observed outcomes are due to good luck. Consequently, banks profitably invest in riskier assets. Subsequently, if a public signal reveals that outcomes are luck-driven, investors withdraw funds, liquidity evaporates, and a crisis ensues. A loan resale market improves liquidity but increases the probability of a crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Anjan Thakor, 2015. "Lending Booms, Smart Bankers, and Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 305-309, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:5:p:305-09
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.p20151090
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/10505/P2015_1090_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thakor, Anjan V., 2012. "Incentives to innovate and financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 130-148.
    2. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    3. Ram T. S. Ramakrishnan & Anjan V. Thakor, 1984. "Information Reliability and a Theory of Financial Intermediation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 415-432.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    5. Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O., 2021. "Credit cycles, human capital and the distribution of income," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 954-975.
    2. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-104.
    3. Anjan Thakor, 2024. "Markus K. Brunnermeier and Ricardo Reis: A crash course on crises: macroeconomic concepts for run-ups, collapses, and recoveries," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 197-199, July.
    4. Wu, Ji & Guo, Mengmeng & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2019. "Market power and risk-taking of banks: Some semiparametric evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    5. Agarwal, Sumit & Ben-David, Itzhak, 2018. "Loan prospecting and the loss of soft information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 608-628.
    6. Huang, Sheng & Maharjan, Johan & Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Disagreement-induced CEO turnover," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    7. Kozubovska, Mariolia, 2017. "The effect of US bank holding companies’ exposure to asset-backed commercial paper conduits on the information opacity and systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 530-545.
    8. Damiano B. Silipo & Giovanni Verga & Sviatlana Hlebik, 2023. "Managerial Beliefs and Banking Behavior," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 401-431, December.
    9. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Jang, Yeejin, 2021. "Who Lends Before Banking Crises? Evidence from the International Syndicated Loan Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 15737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Lo, Andrew W. & Thakor, Richard T., 2023. "Financial intermediation and the funding of biomedical innovation: A review," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Allen N. Berger & Onesime Epouhe & Raluca Roman, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt," Working Papers 21-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Fintech and banking: What do we know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    13. Gilbert COLLETAZ & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Alexandra POPESCU, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Long-Run Risk-Taking," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2409, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    14. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman & Lars Norden & Raluca A. Roman & Gregory F. Udell & Teng Wang, 2024. "Piercing through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses during Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 484-551.
    15. Antonio D’Amato, 2020. "Capital structure, debt maturity, and financial crisis: empirical evidence from SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 919-941, December.
    16. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    17. Wei, Jianxing & Xu, Tong, 2024. "Banking supervision with loopholes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The highs and the lows: A theory of credit risk assessment and pricing through the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-29.
    19. Zeitun, Rami & Temimi, Akram & Mimouni, Karim, 2017. "Do financial crises alter the dynamics of corporate capital structure? Evidence from GCC countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 21-33.
    20. Liang Liu & Hang Le & Steve Thompson, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and bank systemic risk: Evidence from U.S. bank holding companies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2977-2996, July.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The dark side of liquidity creation: Leverage and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 4-21.
    22. Anjan V. Thakor, 2023. "Finance research: What are the new frontiers?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 453-462, August.
    23. Gene Ambrocio, 2020. "Rational exuberance booms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 263-282, January.
    24. David Peón & Manel Antelo, 2019. "Do bad borrowers hurt good borrowers? A model of biased banking competition," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 5-17, February.
    25. Huang, Qiubin & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2020. "Does bank capitalization matter for bank stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The highs and the lows: A theory of credit risk assessment and pricing through the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-29.
    2. Anjan V. Thakor, 2015. "The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009: Why Did It Happen and What Did We Learn?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 155-205.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Hamid Mehran & Anjan V. Thakor, 2016. "Caught between Scylla and Charybdis? Regulating Bank Leverage When There Is Rent Seeking and Risk Shifting," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 36-75.
    4. Hamid Mohtadi & Stefan Ruediger, 2014. "Volatility and Transparency of Financial Markets in the MENA Region," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 173-195, March.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer, 2014. "The Effect of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in Borsa Istanbul," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 142-172, March.
    6. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2015. "Financial innovation and endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-24.
    7. Kaehler, Juergen & Weber, Christoph S., 2023. "Inflation in the aftermath of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Brei, Michael & Ferri, Giovanni & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2023. "Financial structure and income inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Fabian Kuehnhausen, 2014. "The Impact of Financial Innovation on Firm Stability," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 211-239, March.
    10. Ivan Diaz-Rainey & John Ashton & Maz Yap & Murat Genc & Rosalind Whiting, 2015. "The determinants of regulatory responses to risks from financial innovation: Survey evidence from G20," Working Papers 15001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    11. Anjan V. Thakor, 2021. "Ethics, Culture, and Higher Purpose in Banking: Post-Crisis Governance Developments," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-31, December.
    12. Suleyman Hilmi Kal & Nuran Arslaner & Ferhat Arslaner, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Business Cycles," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 121-129, March.
    13. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    14. Acharya, Viral V. & Thakor, Anjan V., 2016. "The dark side of liquidity creation: Leverage and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 4-21.
    15. Bernd Rudolph, 2012. "Funktionen, Risiken und Regulierung von Schattenbanken," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(8), pages 846-867, December.
    16. Berglund, Tom & Mäkinen, Mikko, 2016. "Learning from financial crisis: the experience of Nordic banks," Research Discussion Papers 30/2016, Bank of Finland.
    17. W. Scott Frame & Larry Wall & Lawrence J. White, 2018. "Technological Change and Financial Innovation in Banking: Some Implications for FinTech," Working Papers 18-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    18. Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Fintech and banking: What do we know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    19. Guzin Gulsun Akin & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Gültekin Gollu & Levent Yildiran, 2014. "Formal and Informal Regulations for Credit Card Payment Services," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Pol, Eduardo, 2012. "The preponderant causes of the USA banking crisis 2007–08," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 519-528.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:5:p:305-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.