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Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle

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  • Michael W. L. Elsby
  • Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

That the employment rate appears to respond to changes in trend growth is an enduring macroeconomic puzzle. This paper shows that, in the presence of a return to experience, a slowdown in productivity growth raises reservation wages, thereby lowering aggregate employment. The paper develops new evidence that shows this mechanism is important for explaining the growth-employment puzzle. The combined effects of changes in aggregate wage growth and returns to experience account for all the increase from 1968 to 2006 in nonemployment among low-skilled men and for approximately half the increase in nonemployment among all men. (JEL E24, J24, J31)

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W. L. Elsby & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2012. "Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1378-1413, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1378-1413
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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    1. Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle (AER 2012) in ReplicationWiki

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