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Assumptions Matter: Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment

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  • Steven N. Durlauf
  • Chao Fu
  • Salvador Navarro

Abstract

This paper examines how estimates of the deterrent effect of capital punishment depend on alternate choices of assumptions concerning the homicide process. Specific models of the homicide process represent bundles of these assumptions, which involve the unobserved heterogeneity, the relevant penalty probabilities for homicide choices, possible cross-polity parameter variation, and exchangeability between polity-time pairs that do and do not experience positive numbers of murders. We demonstrate how various assumptions have driven the conflicting findings from studies on capital punishment, and isolate a particular set of assumptions that are required to find a positive deterrent effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven N. Durlauf & Chao Fu & Salvador Navarro, 2012. "Assumptions Matter: Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 487-492, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:3:p:487-92
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    Cited by:

    1. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    2. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    3. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri & Jakob Miethe, 2021. "Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for logit models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 98-124, January.
    4. Philip A. Curry & Anindya Sen & George Orlov, 2016. "Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 481-514, May.
    5. Cristobal Young & Katherine Holsteen, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and Robustness," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(1), pages 3-40, January.
    6. Povilas Lastauskas & Eirini Tatsi, 2013. "Spatial Nexus in Crime and unemployment in Times of crisis: Evidence from Germany," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1359, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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