The Moderating Role of Institutional Quality in the Relationship between Foreign Capital Inflows and Stock Market Development: A Panel Data Analysis

The study examines the impact of foreign capital inflows (FCI) on stock market development (SMD), with a specific focus on the moderating role of institutional quality (IQ). The study uses a panel dataset of 28 emerging economies for the period of 1998 to 2022. The findings reveal that both international remittances (REM) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) have a significant positive impact on SMD. These findings imply that REM inflows enhance the availability of financial resources in the economy, promoting stock market growth and stability. Similarly, FPI increases market liquidity and fills the saving-investment gap in the host country, thereby increasing SMD. However, the results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant negative impact on SMD. This finding implies that FDI could negatively affect SMD in the host country due to the diversion of investments from the stock market to other business ventures, profit repatriation, and crowding-out effects on domestic investment by creating strong competition in the input market, making it difficult for listed domestic firms to operate. Moreover, the study reveals two unique and interesting findings. First, official development assistance (ODA) has a significant negative impact on SMD, suggesting that ODA reduces SMD due to the misallocation of resources due to aid conditions and economic instability, and the crowding-out effect on private investments. Second, IQ positively moderates the relationship between all forms of FCI and SMD in the sampled countries, implying that host countries with a good institutional framework and high IQ tend to experience high SMD.