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Prévision ARFIMA des taux de change : les modélisateurs doivent-ils encore exhorter à la naïveté des prévisions ?

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  • Sandrine Lardic
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to perform predictions of foreign exchange rates series by taking into account their long-term memory property. To this end, this paper proposes the use of ARFIMA processes in order to make predictions of three exchange rate series: $/Canadian $, $/French Franc and $/Italian Lira. Obtained results suggest that ARFIMA predictions generally outperform naïve predictions issued from random walk process.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 1999. "Prévision ARFIMA des taux de change : les modélisateurs doivent-ils encore exhorter à la naïveté des prévisions ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 54, pages 47-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:54:p:47-68
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    File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20076178
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    Cited by:

    1. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2003. "Cointégration fractionnaire entre la consommation et le revenu," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 158(2), pages 123-142.
    2. Valérie Mignon, 1998. "Méthodes d'estimation de l'exposant de Hurst. Application aux rentabilités boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 132(1), pages 193-214.
    3. Lahiani, Amine & Yousfi, Ouidad, 2007. "Modèls Garch à la mémoire longue: application aux taux de change tunisiens [GARCH models : evidence from Tunisian Exchange market]," MPRA Paper 28702, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    4. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon, 2002. "La cointégration non linéaire : une note méthodologique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 155(4), pages 117-137.
    5. Djeutcha, Eric & Kamdem, Jules Sadefo, 2021. "Local and implied volatilities with the mixed-modified-fractional-Dupire model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Mustafa Demirel & Gazanfer Unal, 2020. "Applying multivariate-fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.

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